This is not scientific as no reliable polling or statisically significant samples are available. Also turnout levels are purely speculation.
The Membership is 4 times the level that it was in 2012 when the Leadership was last contested that contest had a low turnout as well going back to 2008 the leadership has been secured on a low turnout and less than 3500 votes. how many of the 60,000 voting members will exercise their franchise this time, what drew the new membership to the Green Party? Natalie Bennet for sure but also Shahrar and Amelia all three through tireless work, but also the other candidates who stood in the record number of seats contested in the 2015 election, this is not a membership here at the feet of any one personality or executive position it is a diverse political party and a membership recently joined in the fray of active membership, a High turnout should I think be expected.
The system used for the election is also the Single transferable Alternate Vote with six candidates and one seat. second third fourth and possibly 5th preferences may well play a very large part in this leadership election, If as I suspect the membership will want to maintain some stability and continuity not to say loyalty and thanks to the proven deputy team of Amelia and Shahrar. A respectable but not overwhelming level of support is the measured expectation of the Coronation Couple, hope and expect to remain a republic my fellow Greens.
So then to the Candidates Clive , Simon Marty and the Davids, DaveM and DaveW. if as a member you want 1 leader and 2 deputies thats the choice if the co leader option is taken its just 1 deputy and as I have already said I think thats a huge waste of real political capital and wilfull destrucion of a dynamic that works with a proven track record.
With enlarged Membership, an expectation of a high turnout and the strong base for Shahrar and Amelia, the Coronation ticket might not even be top at the first ballot, with preference choices coming in from eliminated candidates my bet is the co leadership bid will be eliminated in round 3 or 4 with the two davids in a close outcome that could go either way by round 5, bizarrely the second and third choices of those placing Lucas and Bartley first on their ballots may well prove the decisive block of votes. Will the royalists RON? should be the question on all of our lips?
The system used for the election is also the Single transferable Alternate Vote with six candidates and one seat. second third fourth and possibly 5th preferences may well play a very large part in this leadership election, If as I suspect the membership will want to maintain some stability and continuity not to say loyalty and thanks to the proven deputy team of Amelia and Shahrar. A respectable but not overwhelming level of support is the measured expectation of the Coronation Couple, hope and expect to remain a republic my fellow Greens.
So then to the Candidates Clive , Simon Marty and the Davids, DaveM and DaveW. if as a member you want 1 leader and 2 deputies thats the choice if the co leader option is taken its just 1 deputy and as I have already said I think thats a huge waste of real political capital and wilfull destrucion of a dynamic that works with a proven track record.
With enlarged Membership, an expectation of a high turnout and the strong base for Shahrar and Amelia, the Coronation ticket might not even be top at the first ballot, with preference choices coming in from eliminated candidates my bet is the co leadership bid will be eliminated in round 3 or 4 with the two davids in a close outcome that could go either way by round 5, bizarrely the second and third choices of those placing Lucas and Bartley first on their ballots may well prove the decisive block of votes. Will the royalists RON? should be the question on all of our lips?
Assumptions.
Total Size of Electorate 60,000
Expected turnout 40%
Votes to Count 24000
No Of Possible Ballot combinations. 49X49 = 2401
Quota 50% + 1 = 12001 votes to win
You can play around with secenarios your selves, see the Voting in the 2012 contest to see how those votes transfered in different rounds.
source wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_England_and_Wales_leadership_election,_2012
Assumptions.
Total Size of Electorate 60,000
Expected turnout 40%
Votes to Count 24000
No Of Possible Ballot combinations. 49X49 = 2401
Quota 50% + 1 = 12001 votes to win.
In this scenario Underdog no1 (Malone) would win, Williams could easily be substituted and called Underdog 2, key is the RON vote and the Alternate preferences that transfer as each round progresses. This is a game anyone can play and see the online interactive graphing tool below.
Round 1
| 8000 | 2000 | 5000 | 6000 | 1001 | 900 | 1100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartley/Lucas | RON | Malone | Williams | Warin | Cross | Lord |
|
RON
|
Malone
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord 100
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
|
Malone
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas 100
|
RON
|
|
WIlliams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
Ron 300
|
Malone
|
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
RON
|
Malone 200
|
Williams
|
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley Lucas
|
RON
|
Malone
|
Williams 200
|
Warin
|
Round 2
| 8100 | 2300 | 5200 | 6200 | 1001 | 1200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartley/Lucas | RON | Malone | Williams | Warin | Lord |
|
RON
|
Malone
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
|
Malone
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord 50
|
RON
|
|
WIlliams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas 100
|
Malone
|
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
RON 50
|
Williams
|
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley Lucas
|
RON
|
Malone 801
|
Warin
|
Round 3
| 8200 | 2350 | 6001 | 6200 | 1250 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartley/Lucas | RON | Malone | Williams | Lord |
|
RON
|
Malone
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
Bartley Lucas 100
|
|
Malone
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Ron 100
|
|
WIlliams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Malone 1000
|
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
Willliams 50
|
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley Lucas
|
RON
|
warin
|
Round 4
| 8300 | 2450 | 7001 | 6250 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bartley/Lucas | RON | Malone | Williams |
|
RON
|
Malone 1450
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
|
Malone
|
Williams 1000
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
|
WIlliams
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas
|
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
Bartley Lucas
|
RON
|
Round 5
| 8300 | 8451 | 7250 |
|---|---|---|
| Bartley/Lucas | Malone | Williams |
|
RON
|
Williams
|
Warin
|
|
Malone
|
Warin
|
Cross
|
|
WIlliams
|
Cross
|
Lord
|
|
Warin
|
Lord
|
Bartley/Lucas 3250
|
|
Cross
|
Bartley Lucas
|
Malone 4000
|
| Malone wins 12451 Votes |
| Lucas Bartley 11550 votes |
This on line electoral system modelling tool is a good way of seeing how the alternative transferable preference can make a big diffference in multi candidate instant run off voting. The screen capture is not interactive the link takes you to an interactive on line tool.
This scenario is just for fun and pure speculation to illustrate how transferable votes before or after RON will make a big difference in a STV race with several candidates.
This Video Is a very good Expalination of the system too.
Good Luck to all the candidates and rememebr RON is a valid democratic choice and can be a powerful tool to ensure more diversity by securing the #GreenPistols in Office.
Get your Tickets here.
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